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Prediction for CME (2024-05-08T12:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-08T12:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30564/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Earth-directed full halo seen in all coronagraphs. The source is a large eruption from AR 3664, which included a long-duration M8.6 flare (S22W11) which peaked at 2024-05-08T12:04Z best seen in SDO AIA 131. An EUV wave and field line movement is observed in SDO AIA 94/131/171/211 with some surface brightening in SDO AIA 304. This flare+CME combo resulted in a small rise in protons observed at SOHO and GOES, but not enough for a threshold crossing. The start time used here is when the shock front emerges, with the brighter bulk front emerging ~2024-05-08T13:00Z. This CME likely combined with several other CMEs from 05-07 to 05-09, with the combined front of the CMEs arriving at L1 at 2024-05-10T16:36Z. The possible arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with Btotal increasing to 45nT at 16:44Z. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed is observed from 462 km/s at 16:36Z to 703 km/s at 16:48Z. Increases in density and temperature are also observed. A possible flux rope signature begins around 2024-05-10T21:38Z which corresponds to a second, more intense amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal reaching a maximum of 73nT. Within this possible flux rope feature, which extends to 2024-05-11T09:30Z, there are three noticeable decreases in density which may correspond to three CMEs that may have merged into the signature. Because of this, it is possible the signature is associated with the arrival of CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z, CME: 2024-05-08T12:24Z, and/or CME: 2024-05-08T19:12Z. CME: 2024-05-07T03:12Z and CME: 2024-05-07T05:24Z measured slowly and may have been overtaken by CME: 2024-05-08T05:36Z. Preliminary analysis of this arrival signature was provided by Carlos Perez Alanis from the LASSOS team at NASA GSFC.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-10T16:36Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-11T00:38Z (-7.33h, +7.33h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:

CME input parameters:
Apex direction (deg): 3.0
Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7
Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 45.0

initial CME speed: 776.0 (+/- 50) km/s
initial height: 21.5 R_sun
initial time: 2024-05-08T16:58Z
drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km 
ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s
time step: 10 min
ensemble members: 50k

Lead Time: 48.05 hour(s)
Difference: -8.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2024-05-08T16:33Z

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